According to the House of Lords European Union committee there was (I paraphase) a catastrophic misreading of the mood in the Kremlin with the EU not realising the depth of Russian hostility to its plans for closer relations with Ukraine.
This is a classic example of attempting to claim expertise based on "analysis" of known facts and imply other people should have been able to predict the current situation in advance. We all know now what Russia is doing so it is easy to claim we should have known Russia would do it. In fact this is monumental guff. Let's start with the obvious guff. If it was so easy to read the mood of the Kremlin in advance of these events, how comes all the wise and learned members of the House of Lords committee said nothing about it at the time? Perhaps because it wasn't obvious. Indeed it is actually impossible to predict with certainty any outcome from a given set of events.
Even now after the fact it is not possible to demonstrate a casual relationship between Russian behaviour and EU plans for closer relations with Ukraine. There are so many other factors in play - the oil price for example - that no analysis can prove a relationship.
So, here's an idea. Instead of wasting your time and my taxes on writing reports about what we should have done, spend some time explaining what we should do now. Your fingerpointing at supposed mistakes in the past is totally useless.
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